BTC Hodler Net Position Change: Signaling Market Movements - Analysis and Interpretation

Share good articlesIs the next step "the main rise of the bull market" or "the peak of the calf stage"?The chart below is the Hodler Net Position Change of BTC holders, which reflects the monthly position changes of long-term investors (HODLers). When a red signal (negative value) appears, it means that long-term holders are distributing chips; when a green signal (positive value) appears, it means that long-term holders are accumulating chips.From the chart, whenever the red signal is below -50,000, a typical event will occur in the market. For example, the red signal position marked 1 in the figure corresponds to the end point of a main rising wave of BTC; the position marked 2 corresponds to the node where the main rising wave begins; the position marked 3 is the bottom of this cycle. ;The position marked 3 is the top of the initial rebound from bear to bull (calf top);The logic is that long-term holders tend to sell their chips at the following points in time: 1. At the bottom of a bear market, collective capitulation (panic flight) will occur; 2. From the start of the bull market to the top, the main rise is often accompanied by long-term The process of holders distributing chips to short-term holders and taking profits; 3. The Mavericks stage top is generated by long-term holders collectively cashing out.Now, we once again see a red signal below -50,000, indicating that long-term holders have seen significant distribution activity in the recent period, which requires our attention. Based on the four situations analyzed above, we can exclude 1 and 3 (that is, the end of the main rise and the bottom of the cycle). So friends, do you think this will be 2 or 4 (2 starts the main rise or 4 stages peak)?The most original interpretation of this data comes from a foreign analyst who I admire very much @CryptoCon_. I translated it into Chinese and redrawn the picture based on his views to make it easier for everyone to learn and reference.If it were only shared as data, this would be the end of writing. If you guys who see this already have a clear answer in your mind, you don’t need to look any further, just make your decision firm. But I don’t like to turn all my tweets into “suspense films” that are neither painful nor painful, so the following content is only my personal opinion, and there is no guarantee that the results of the analysis will be 100%.

标签：BTC CHANGE NET