降息前BTC及纳斯达克走势回顾：

2019年7月31日首次降息：维持高利率7个月后的首次降息。

BTC与纳斯达克走势基本相似，只是BTC波动性较高，均在降息前一个月创出新高。

BTC：降息前一个月创出新高后，开始了一波回调，持续了一个月。

降息开始后，继续上涨，试图重回新高，但成交量跟不上，形成LPSY，一周内上涨27%。

纳指在降息前三个月开始一个月回调，随后创出降息前新高。

降息正式宣布后，一波回调开始。

（纳斯达克降息趋势）

（BTC降息趋势）

2019年9月18日第二次降息：

BTC：首次降息时连续一周上涨。

LPSY形成后，继续回落至首次降息宣布时的价格。

直到第二次降息开始后才再次下跌。

纳斯达克综合指数：首次降息后价格回调，价格维持区间波动。

第二次降息时，价格已回到第一次降息时的价格，第二次降息宣布后再次下跌。

2019年10月30日第三次降息：在2-3次降息阶段，BTC和纳斯达克的触底时间周期几乎相同。

两者均在首次降息宣布后两个月见底。

行为。

BTC：第二次降息宣布后，再次回调。

跌了一会，就不再跌了。

直到第三次降息宣布，价格才回到第一次降息时的价格。

纳斯达克：时间和价格趋势与BTC同步。

关于312：312是黑天鹅，无法预测。

不过，BTC和312的纳斯达克有一个共同点，那就是两者的价格几乎达到了上次宣布加息时的价格。

BTC是3928，纳斯达克是6284（差价5%会回退）。

所以从船与剑可以得出一个结论：

1、前三次降息均为回调阶段。

此前，由于没有ETF，BTC的波动性相对较高。

现在有了ETF，圈外势力开始介入，波动肯定会下来。

然后这个回调阶段就会随之而来。

只需拿起手指即可离开。

2、如果出现黑天鹅，BTC可能会触及29353（最近一次加息时间为2023年7月26日）。

Of course, traders do not predict, they only follow. From a historical experience, this is just a directional content, guiding me to be more cautious when facing interest rate cuts, and to have a plan in advance to deal with it if I get hit.

So what's going on now? Judging from the current meetings, the Fed has become dovish. There is a high probability that it will cut interest rates three times this year. However, the time of the interest rate cut is uncertain, but it will basically not be June. So four things can be foreseen from this: A. There will be a new high before the interest rate cut. . B. There will be a correction when the interest rate cut officially starts. C. Interest rates were cut three times, and the correction time is about 2 months. D. This wave of BTC market may last until June (now at the end of March, combined with the situation of copycats, this time it has stepped back to 60,000. Many copycats have returned to the structure of attracting funds and then inserting pins, indicating that copycats still have a chance to perform. ).

The above is just a historical review of mine. I will be more concerned about a few things in the future:

1. The volume and price of BTC returned to 73,000. (I only look at the volume and price, not the simple chart shape. Volume determines the price. When the M top is formed, it only takes one explosive volume to break)

2. The start-up situation of a well-structured copycat. (My position is basically full and has not been moved yet. If the startup does not go smoothly, I will change positions)

3. Determine the time of the first interest rate cut.

4. Whether the volume and price behavior of BTC after the first interest rate cut are in sync with the Nasdaq.

5. Whether the volume and price behavior of BTC in the half month after the second interest rate cut can form a re-accumulation structure.

The key points are the need to track the volume and price behavior of Bitcoin prices at key positions.

标签：BTC 降息 纳斯达克 回顾